How to choose commercial premises for a business: location analysis by the numbers

Where to start when choosing premises for a shop or café

With a spreadsheet. I ask the client for three figures: average spend per customer, margin, and all monthly costs except rent. From these comes the key number: how many purchases a day you need to break even at different rent levels.

Only then do I look for locations. That way you immediately rule out premises where rent eats the whole margin, however many people walk past.

At Kaspi I got used to a certain standard of work: fast, clear, all numbers and documents in one place. I prepare location reports for private clients the same way.

How to measure foot traffic for commercial premises

I count foot traffic myself, on site, with a counter on my phone. I stand at the door and count people in 15-minute blocks: morning, lunchtime, evening, on a weekday and at the weekend. Multiplying by four gives the flow per hour, which I then add up over the opening hours.

The key is to count your audience rather than everyone. Students with backpacks outside a coffee shop and pensioners outside a pharmacy both count as foot traffic, but they buy different things.

Traffic and road junctions: why access matters

For formats people drive to (groceries, car supplies, a roadside pharmacy, a bank), car traffic matters more than foot traffic. But cars speeding past on six lanes don't help you.

I check whether drivers can pull in and stop. A central barrier in the middle of the street effectively cuts you off from oncoming traffic. No parking and no U-turn within a couple of hundred metres kills impulse visits.

A public transport stop at the door or a metro exit gives foot traffic all day. For Magnum and bank branches we looked separately at how people walk and drive up to the location at rush hour.

The area's average spend and competitors

The same franchise will earn different revenue in Samal and in a residential suburb. I estimate an area's average spend from indirect signs: the class of residential complexes around, local rents, the cars in the courtyards, and which shops already survive nearby.

I map competitors within walking distance. Lots of similar outlets nearby isn't always bad: sometimes it's an established retail street people go to on purpose, like Panfilov Street in Almaty for restaurants. It's bad when a strong player with the same offer and price is next door and you have nothing that sets you apart.

• Who nearby sells the same thing and at what price
• What's missing within 500 metres (a free niche)
• Which premises nearby change tenants often: a sign of a weak spot
• Whether there are neighbours who bring your audience: a school for a stationery shop, a gym for healthy food

Designated use and converting residential to non-residential

The first thing I check in the documents is that the premises are non-residential and their designated use allows your type of business. A ground-floor apartment where a shop "is already operating" may never have been converted. Then the problems land on the tenant as well as the owner.

Converting residential premises to non-residential in Kazakhstan takes a long time. According to Bank CenterCredit (2026), in earthquake-prone Almaty you need a seismologist's report, notarised consent from neighbours, a design from a licensed organisation and a decision by the city administration (akimat), and the whole process usually takes 6 months to a year. In nine-storey buildings of the 158 series, or if the windows face only the courtyard, conversion is often impossible.

Restrictions: alcohol, food service and extraction

Technical specs: power, entrance, ceilings

Electrical capacity is often a problem in Almaty. According to an expert quoted by inbusiness.kz, a 100–150 m² café needs at least 40–45 kW, and a 300–400 m² restaurant about 120–150 kW. Increasing capacity can be expensive and slow, so I confirm the allocated kilowatts before negotiating the rent.

• A separate street entrance, not through the stairwell of a residential building
• Shopfront windows: visible from the pavement and the road, with a sign you can get approved
• Ceiling height for ventilation and equipment
• Water, sewerage and a grease trap for food service
• A loading area: where the delivery van will stop
• A ramp and step-free entrance: this affects traffic from parents with prams and older customers
• The condition of load-bearing structures: in earthquake-prone Almaty, walls removed on the ground floor weaken the whole building

Lease terms: what to check in the contract

According to inbusiness.kz for 2024, the average asking rent for commercial space in Almaty was about 10,000 ₸ per m² a month, 20,000–25,000 on retail streets and 15,000–25,000 on Panfilov Street. There are hardly any fresh public statistics for 2026, so I compare rents using real offers around the specific address.

• Rent-free period for fit-out: usually 1–3 months on the market
• Indexation: around 10% a year is common on the market. Better to fix it in the contract
• Term and registration: 11-month leases aren't registered, but a registered lease protects the tenant from a unilateral rent increase
• Who pays for utilities, maintenance and repairs to building services
• The right to sublet and the terms for early exit
• Encumbrances on the premises and documents proving the landlord really is the owner

My experience: how locations were chosen for Magnum, Kaspi and Salam Bro

Since 2022 I've worked as a development manager at Kaspi Bank, finding premises for branches and projects, including Magnum stores. Out of about 140 properties I assessed, 15 opened. The payback forecast was 5–7 years, and they became profitable in about 2. The main skill in this job is saying no: on average, one opened store came out of roughly nine assessed addresses.

Before that, during the pandemic, I invested in the Salam Bro burger chain and chose a location in Kaskelen myself. The main square, the only park in the area next to it where families go for walks, and good lease terms. The outlet made about 4 million ₸ net a month, and I sold it at the peak.