Population growth and urbanisation in Kazakhstan as the basis of property demand

Kazakhstan's population grows by more than 200,000 people a year, and Almaty went from about 1.98 to 2.35 million residents in five years. A third of the country is under 18, and in 5–15 years these children will become tenants, apartment buyers, office workers and customers of services. At the same time, the birth rate has been falling since 2021, and within the metro area people increasingly settle in the region's suburbs rather than in Almaty itself, so demand has to be looked for in specific directions.

In short

On 1 January 2026 Kazakhstan had 20,495,975 residents, up more than 212,500 in a year (Bureau of National Statistics)
Almaty's population on 1 January 2026 was 2,347,924, up 55,869 in a year
33.6% of the country's population, about 6.9 million people, are children under 18; Almaty has 688,900 children
335,000 children were born in 2025, a birth rate of 16.43 per 1,000 people; the number of births has been falling since 2021
In interregional migration in 2025, Almaty gained a net 12,110 people and Almaty Region a net 33,126
Almaty's master plan to 2040 provides for 335 kindergartens, 188 schools and 65 outpatient clinics

How many people live in Almaty and Kazakhstan in 2026

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, 20,495,975 people lived in Kazakhstan on 1 January 2026. In 2025 the population grew by more than 212,500. By 1 August 2026 the figure passed 20.6 million.

Almaty remains the country's largest city. On 1 January 2026 it had 2,347,924 residents, 55,869 more than a year earlier. By 1 June, according to the Bureau's table, it had 2,366,525. Five years ago, according to BES.media, the city had about 1,977,000 residents. That makes almost 370,000 new residents in five years, the size of an entire regional capital.

Where the growth comes from: births and migration

Birth rate

In 2025, 335,000 children were born in the country, a crude birth rate of 16.43 per 1,000 people. The highest rates are in Turkestan Region, Shymkent and Mangystau. Natural increase for the year was about 200,000 people.

The trend, though, is down: the number of births has been falling since 2021, and in 2025 it was 4.2% lower than the year before. For an investor this means population growth will continue, but more slowly, and forecasts based on 2021 no longer work.

Migration from the regions and from abroad

Within the country, people move to a few places. In interregional migration for 2025, only four regions had a positive balance: Astana (net 87,459), Almaty Region (net 33,126), Shymkent (net 15,130) and Almaty (net 12,110).

Note that the region around Almaty gained almost three times as many newcomers as the city itself. People work in Almaty but live in Kaskelen, Talgar, Konaev and Yesik, because housing there is cheaper. External migration in 2025 gave the country a net 16,153 people, and 82% of arrivals came from CIS countries.

Kazakhstan's young population: why it matters for business

At the start of 2026, children under 18 made up 33.6% of the population, about 6.9 million people. Over five years the number of children grew by 4.4%. Almaty has 688,900 children, and Almaty Region 572,300.

In 5–15 years this generation will start renting and buying homes, working, ordering deliveries and travelling. The city is already planning for it: according to BES.media, Almaty's master plan to 2040 provides for 335 kindergartens, 188 schools and 65 outpatient clinics.

What population growth means for each type of project

Housing

The most direct effect. Every year Almaty and the region add tens of thousands of residents who need an apartment or a house. At the same time, high-rise construction has been banned in the city's foothills, so new housing is shifting to the north and west of Almaty and to the suburbs.

Warehouses and logistics

More people means more marketplace orders. According to BES.media, about 158,000 small and medium-sized companies are registered in Almaty, about 29% of all companies in the country. They need last-mile warehouses and pickup points closer to residential districts and suburbs.

Offices and IT

The average salary in Almaty in Q2 2026 was 610,371 ₸, and 769,186 ₸ in Medeu District. The city attracts young professionals, and companies look for offices to house them. More on this in the section on business centres.

Tourism and services

2.35 million city residents plus the suburbs create constant demand for weekend getaways: bathhouses, guesthouses and glamping within 1–2 hours' drive. This is a base that doesn't depend on foreign tourist flow.

New cities and the metro area around Almaty

The state is trying to steer the metro area's growth into the new city of Alatau between Almaty and Konaev. According to the project's official website, about 2 million residents are planned there by 2050. For now it's mostly plans and laws, but an investor with a long horizon should keep this direction in view.

In practice I see demand where there are already roads and jobs: along the highway to Kapchagay, around Kaskelen and Talgar, and in Almaty's northern districts. When I chose a site for a burger restaurant in Kaskelen, I looked for a place where people already gather: the main square and the only public garden in the area. The outlet brought in about 4 million ₸ net a month. Growing suburbs have few places like that, and that's an opportunity.

Risks: what to watch in demographic forecasts

The birth rate has been falling since 2021, so population growth will be slower than five years ago
Migration data gets revised: interim figures for 9 months of 2025 for Almaty were higher than the full-year ones
Growth is uneven: suburbs grow faster than the centre, and some districts are emptying
New cities such as Alatau exist mostly on paper for now, and timelines may slip
Population growth doesn't guarantee demand with money behind it: salaries in the suburbs are lower than in Medeu District
Infrastructure overload: traffic, water and power grids in growing suburbs lag behind construction

I'll show you where demand is growing in the metro area

Tell me what project you're considering. I'll compare the population data with what I see on the ground: new buildings, roads, shops, and suggest locations where demand already exists but supply lags behind.

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Questions and answers

How many people live in Almaty in 2026?

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, 2,347,924 people on 1 January 2026 and 2,366,525 on 1 June 2026. In 2025 the city grew by almost 56,000 residents.

Is Kazakhstan's population growing?

Yes. On 1 January 2026 the country had 20.5 million people, up more than 212,000 in a year, and by August 2026 it passed 20.6 million. Growth rests on natural increase of about 200,000 a year, but the birth rate has been falling since 2021.

Where do people move to within Kazakhstan?

In 2025, Astana, Almaty Region, Shymkent and Almaty had a positive balance of interregional migration. Almaty Region gained a net 33,000 people, almost three times more than Almaty itself.

What share of Kazakhstan's population is young?

At the start of 2026, 33.6% of the population were children under 18, about 6.9 million people. Almaty has 688,900 children.

Which businesses benefit from Almaty's population growth?

Housing in the suburbs and the north of the city, last-mile warehouses, services for families with children, and weekend getaways. I look for places where the population has already grown but infrastructure and shops haven't caught up.

Is the birth rate falling in Kazakhstan?

Yes. 335,000 children were born in 2025, 4.2% fewer than a year earlier, and the number of births has been falling since 2021. The population is still growing, but more slowly.